Thursday, October 16, 2025
Pre-market futures are rising once more this morning, with strong Q3 earnings reports supporting ongoing optimism driven by AI. The Dow is up +83 points at this time, the S&P 500 is +25, and the Nasdaq is +150 points. The small-cap Russell 2000, which recently hit another all-time closing high, is also gaining +9 points at this hour.
We are missing some crucial economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown today: Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, along with Weekly Jobless Claims, which have not been released for the past four weeks. Retail Sales were anticipated to decrease from the previous month's positive 0.6% headline growth and 0.9% growth excluding autos.
Initial unemployment claims had declined quickly over the past few weeks, dropping from 264K to 218K two weeks later. It would be good to observe the current trend. The PPI year-over-year in August was a milder increase of +2.6% for wholesale prices, with +2.8% excluding food, energy, and trade. Would these figures show similar easing compared to last month, or should we be more cautious about inflation?
Philly Fed Shows Negative Trend for 5 Out of 7 Months
In a turn around from what we observed yesterday in theEmpire State Index, which was stronger than anticipated for October, this morning's Philly Fed survey from the Federal Reserve moved back into negative territory. Analysts had predicted a second consecutive positive result, around +10, compared to +23.2 from the previous month, but it actually came in at -12.8 — the lowest level since April.
This is the fifth month in the last seven where the manufacturing headline has been lower in New York state. Over the past 10 months reported in 2025, five have shown positive results and five have been negative. Manufacturers in the Empire State currently have a more optimistic outlook compared to previous reports, although this may reflect the belief that they are approaching the bottom of the current manufacturing cycle rather than seeing real improvement.
Q3 Financial Summary: TSM, TRV, USB
A number of companies are releasing their quarterly results before today's market open, but we can only highlight a few of them here:
Taiwan SemiconductorTSM, as expected, delivered a robust quarter. The company reported earnings of $2.92 per share, which was 12.74% higher than the $2.59 forecast by Zacks. Revenue reached $33.10 billion, exceeding the $31.50 billion anticipated by analysts and nearly $1 billion more than the same period last year. Its High-Performance Computing segment, which encompasses AI GPUs, was the top performer, contributing a 57% increase in revenue — also predictable.
Dow component The Travelers TRV exceeded expectations in its Q3 financial results this morning, reporting earnings of $8.14 per share, which was significantly higher than the projected $6.01. The company's revenues for the quarter reached $12.44 billion, also exceeding forecasts, though by a smaller margin of +0.74%. However, its Book Value per Share fell short, declining by -6.6% during the period, contributing to a -4% drop in the insurance giant's stock price at this point. For further details on TRV's earnings, click here.
U.S. BancorpUSB shares are rising this morning due to strong performance in both revenue and earnings for Q3: the company reported earnings of $1.22 per share, exceeding the Zacks estimate of $1.11 by 9.9%. Revenue reached $7.33 billion, surpassing expectations by 2.4% for the quarter. However, USB stock is still down approximately 1.5% year-to-date. For more details on USB's earnings, click here.
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This piece was first released on Zacks Investment Research (Healthy urvival).